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The writing is on the (electronic) wall

A decade ago, the world of publishing was very different to what we see today, for several reasons.

Amazon had taken the world by storm, and not just in publishing though that is the most obvious focus. Figures released by Bowker Market Research in 2012 showed that the online retailer was then responsible for the sales of roughly one in every three books sold, in all formats and all types. The previous year – 2011 – its market share had been one in every four books sold.

Not only that, but when all retailers and the market as a whole were assessed, the figures showed that over half of all consumer spending on books had taken place online, and independent bookshops were essentially a dying breed.

The percentage figures for the UK were similar, the only major difference being that in America supermarket book sales were almost insignificant in overall terms, whereas in Britain these paperback sales formed a very important share of the market, with one supermarket in particular dominating. Perhaps surprisingly, that was Asda, and certainly ten years ago the fiction buyer for Asda could quite literally decide whether or not a particular book would make it into the bestseller charts, based solely on his or her decision about whether or not Asda would stock it.

Perhaps surprisingly, the study also showed that sales of ebooks only accounted for about 10% of all book revenue, because of the significant difference in physical and ebook prices, and that women were responsible for 64% of all spending on ebooks. The demographic analysis showed that the highest percentage of ebook purchases came from people in the 18-29 age range (31%), with the 30-44 year old buyers very close behind with 28%. Teenagers only bought about 5% of ebooks.

There was a slightly different poll conducted in a contemporary edition of USA Today, which asked readers how they had obtained their most recent book. Less than half of those who responded (48%) said that they had bought it. Almost a quarter of them (24%) had borrowed it from either a friend or family member, and a further 14% had borrowed it from a library.

A somewhat surprising 13% ticked the ‘other’ box, which could mean that they found it, stole it – though most people wouldn’t consider books to be high value or desirable items in the eyes of most thieves – received it as a gift or obtained it from some kind of communal resource, like the paperback cupboard in a clubhouse. Those people reading electronic versions, of course, could well have downloaded the book for free from Amazon, either because the book was offered as a loss leader to advertise that particular author’s other works, or as a kind of free promotion ahead of the book going on sale at normal price.

But whatever the reason, the one fact that shone out very clearly from that particular survey was that less than half of those readers who answered had actually paid money for their current choice of literature, and that really could not have been good news for anybody involved in publishing, at any level or in any position.

The situation today is also confused, but in a different way, with research suggesting that ebook sales in the UK in 2021 were at their lowest level since 2012. According to Nielsen, sales of ebooks had climbed fairly steadily since that year, reaching a record high of 95 million in 2020, but then fell to 80 million in 2021. However, due to the increased prices of many ebooks, the total spending of a little over £340 million in 2021 was still higher than that seen in some years of the previous decade and represented a market share of 13%. Printed book sales in 2021 were about the same as the previous year, while audiobook sales saw an increase.

A breakdown of the genres showed that erotic fiction was most likely to be purchased as an ebook, with almost two-thirds being bought digitally. Romance was close behind at 59% and war and adventure books at 50%. Not necessarily related, but well over a third of all ebook purchases were made by women aged over 45.

You will certainly have heard of the book Fifty Shades of Grey, a novel that’s been claimed to be both the fastest selling book of all time and also the worst novel of all time. According to people in the publishing industry, one reason for its undoubted success is that purchasers could download the ebook and then read it on a train or in a café or somewhere without any of their companions knowing that they were immersed in a steamy work of fiction. They wouldn’t have the same anonymity if they’d bought the paperback.

Couple that information together with the Nielsen research, and maybe the best option for a new novelist to take is the romance/erotica route …

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